By Lt General (ret) Konstantinos Loukopoulos
C.E.O. Formion SA
SESC Advisory Board Member
More than three weeks after the "earthquake" that French President Emmanuel Macron caused in Europe and in the US, with his well-known statements on "NATO's brain death" but also with reference to several other real issues concerning European Defense and Security, in an interview with the Economist magazine on November 7th, and ... the "aftershocks" still continue. In the end, the Atlantic Alliance may indeed be 'weakened' when such statements enter so easily into a period of intense reflection that reaches the limits of an existential crisis.
In this undisturbed troubled atmosphere, the leaders of the Atlantic Alliance meet (note: the organizers have just described it as a ... meeting rather than a Summit, as usual is decribed) the day of December 4 in the northwest outskirts of London, in Watford, Hertford. It is more than certain that the Macron “Stones” will be the main topic of discussion in the three-hour "Summit", for which there was a light agenda foreseen since the main reason for the meeting was to celebrate 70 years. of the Alliance at the highest level. It is also certain that Macron's placements will also concern the little gatherings that will be formed at the Reception to be given on the eve of the December 3 Session by Queen Elizabeth at Buckingham Palace for the Leaders of the 29 member-states of the Alliance who are nato "Nations".
It is estimated that the French President, copying the practices of his American counterpart, deliberately choοse a controversial "seismic" rhetoric in this interview in order to draw attention and create a kind of ... existential reflection. It is noteworthy that on the same day as the Macron interview on November 7, Federal German Defense Minister Annegrett Crab-Carenbauer (AKK), speaking at the Military Academy in Munich, said in a different rhetoric that almost the same orator in the ECFR that "these are two people sharing a common idea". And some other European leaders, including, of course, President Trump have raised these extremely interesting and unfortunately existing issues or some of them from another perspective and of course in a different style such as:
- NATO's unclear strategic goals and the need to reassess its role in shaping new security architecture.
- Lack of coordination and problems in decision-making and reduced cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance.
- The need to increase defense spending (either within NATO or in the EU)
- The unwanted complications that can be caused by Turkey's extreme adventurism in Syria with US tolerance, coupled with the provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense
- The need for Europe's strategic autonomy to assert a global role and that European countries can no longer rely on US protection.
- The need for dialogue with Russia.
Macron probably achieved what he wanted. It sparked just before the Summit, a debate on the full range of issues it raised, with strong criticism from both sides of the Atlantic. Even Erdogan didn't miss the opportunity to attack him personally in defense of ... NATO! But who exercised criticism have forgotten that the debate on the ineffectiveness of the Atlantic Alliance was first opened by the US President, the country that is the guardian of the Alliance and its indispensable member. We all remember declaring them obsolete NATO, which it subsequently lifted and reservations about US security guarantees in the context of collective defense as provided for in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Despite its problems, NATO is not brain dead! As it is not ..obsolete. It is a geopolitical fact and is the basic institution of Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, that both the US and Europeans benefit from. One of the factors of his 70 years of successful life as a Collective Security Agency is primarily the adaptability to the prevailing geopolitical conditions and, secondly, the differences that are easily overcome. But the main recipients of his statements were the European Allies and Partners, not the US, who are good at talking about Europe's Strategic Autonomy (we will soon edit a specific relative analysis) and the EU in particular, based on complementarity with NATO. . However, in spite of worthwhile initiatives (PESCO, EDF, CARD) such as… it is still far behind.
We cannot resist to the temptation to think that Macron considers it is time to start projecting his own European Intervention Initiative or E2 military force, outside of NATO and EU structures that can be deployed where there is crisis. Founded in June 2018, it currently has 14 members, France, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Romania and… the United Kingdom which is traditionally opposed to any other Defense and Security initiative beyond NATO. Our country has so far not been open to this initiative, although Macron himself has implied that he "would like to but thinks so." It should be noted here that France and the UK are associated with the 2010 Lancaster House Strategic Military Cooperation Agreement (Cameron-Sarkozy) which was reaffirmed and strengthened at the French-British Summit in Sandhurst in January 2018 and Germany as well. in January 2019 they signed the Aachen Pact as an extension of the 1963 Elysee Pact in force. Many analysts believe that the French President may see his country lead and Germany to make money.
Of course we also have the issues included in the "light" agenda that will also be affected by the general “climate”. In addition to the well-known issue of rising defense spending that has become Trump's flag, although the 2% commitment was decided in Wales in 2014 on Obama, the US will also have a common stance on China. . The US needs its Allies to tackle what they perceive as China's strategic competition, something that former Defense Secretary General Mattis had pointed out in his resignation letter.
However, the French President on Thursday, November 28, during a ... fire brigade visit of Jens Stoltenberg of the Atlantic Alliance to Paris while clarifying that his statement on NATO's "brain dead" was simply a striking warning to all defended all the other issues he raised. His statement in front of the SG / NATO, that "Europe's real common enemy is not Russia and China, but terrorism" is expected to be responded by both the Baltic states and Poland regarding Russia. as well as the US in terms of China respectively. In order to allow more time for the NATO Leaders in bilateral contacts to help ease the tensions , the organizers removed the working lunch from the agenda.
So while we were expecting a boring Summit where the big talk would be dominated by NATO's 70 years and how strong and united it will enter the next decade we will have a very interesting two-day in London tomorrow, given that President Trump has no … sill said anythng. Greece, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' first appearance in NATO is of particular interest to our country.
* Lieutenant General e. Konstantinos Loukopoulos is head of the Liberal Observatory. He is a graduate of Nationa Defence College and has completed Strategic Security Studies. He was a spokesperson in the Hellenic MOD, Director of International Relations at the General Secretariat of the MOD , and has served as Commander and Staff Posts in Greece while at NATO as a Defense Planning Coordinator at the International Military Staff (IMS) (3years) and as Instructor and Chief PSE in NATO School Oberammergau in Germany.
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