What World Post-Covid-19
Three Scenarios
by MAT BURROWS AND PETER ENGELKE
Introduction
The coronavirus pandemic presents a substantial shock to the postwar order,
established by the United States and its allies. For the past 75 years, the
United States and its partners have led a rules-based system predicated on
liberal democratic values, an open global economy, and formal institutional bodies
backed by powerful democratic states. But this order has not gone unchallenged,
and the current pandemic threatens the future of the system at large. A downturn
in Western economies could boost a rising China, while a global depression could
breed support for protectionism. International bodies designed to safeguard
public health appear weak and unable to contain the crisis, and alliances with
transatlantic partners are fraying as nations turn inward and close borders.
Sustaining and revitalizing the rules-based order that has guaranteed freedom,
prosperity, and peace for decades requires a decisive global and US-led response
to the pandemic.
This paper is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of a crisis that
is still unfolding. Three scenarios are sketched out for the possible direction of
the global system post-COVID-19. The Scowcroft Center’s Foresight, Strategy,
and Risks Initiative will continue to follow the course of the coronavirus, paying
close attention to its geopolitical, economic, and social implications. In a situation
of intense crisis, scenarios help to reduce the scope of possibilities, decrease
uncertainty, and make the different options more visible. In using scenarios as a
tool to manage deep uncertainty in a complex, volatile environment, the United
States and its allies and partners can be more strategically agile and make better
long-term decisions that protect and advance common interests.
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